Harnessing sub-hourly solar forecasts for power markets trading

Granularity of sub-hourly forecasts unlock significant insight for real-time power trading compared to hourly data

Real-time power trading operates on a sub-hourly basis, often in 5-minute increments. As a solar photovoltaic asset owner that is scheduling power in the wholesale power market, you need accurate forecasting tools to gain insights and confidence in your day-ahead and real-time market activities. The intermittent nature of solar makes it especially challenging to accurately assess impacts to power generation with an hourly resolution. Common forecasting errors, such as those caused by cloud cover, inverter power limits, and irradiance transposition are often masked by hourly forecast intervals. Amperon’s new sub-hourly solar generation forecasts provide the precision crucial to understand your real-time exposure in power markets.  

Amperon’s sub-hourly solar forecast solution  

Amperon's solar sub-hourly forecasts deliver a 5-minute solar generation forecast at the asset level, offering the granularity to optimize real-time energy markets with confidence and accuracy.  

With Amperon’s solar sub-hourly forecast, customers access:

• Granular solar generation forecasts: 5-minute solar generation forecasts for a 48-hour period from present time, currently updated hourly (soon to be updated every 5 minutes).

• Flexible forecast output access: Access sub-hourly forecasts via Amperon’s platform or API to support real-time operations and trading analysis.

• Forecast accuracy: Each forecast accuracy is scored and calculated using a capacity normalized mean absolute error (cnMAE) to provide transparency in our model accuracy. Read more about our approach to renewable forecast accuracy metrics.

Equipped with precise and accurate solar generation forecasts, customers can confidently operate in real-time markets. Customers gain hyper-accurate insight 48 hours in advance of their solar assets’ generation, allowing them to optimize their day-ahead and real-time power markets trades. Without sub-hourly solar forecasts, customers risk financial losses from over-scheduling or under-scheduling due to forecast inaccuracies in actual generation versus what was scheduled.

With Amperon’s solar sub-hourly forecasts, independent power producers (IPPs), utilities, and public power organizations can unlock the full potential of their assets in real-time markets.  

Contact us today to learn more about how Amperon can help you optimize your solar forecasts.