Forecasting for the Super Bowl: How much does the big game really affect demand?

Will the Chiefs three-peat? How does Saquon Barkley affect the Chiefs-Eagles Round 2? How many Taylor Swift shots will we get? The Super Bowl is surrounded by an unlimited number of questions, only to be answered by the highly anticipated event itself. Beyond the game, sportsbooks have taken Super Bowl prop bets to another level—wagers on the length of the National Anthem, whether a player or coach will cry, the color of the Gatorade shower, and perhaps most interestingly, bets on whether the power will go out.

After the infamous power outage of Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans in 2013, caused by a misconfigured protective relay device that tripped prematurely amid high demand, the NFL and stadium owners took a closer look at their backup power systems to prevent future issues. This lesson mirrors a broader challenge in the energy industry—how difficult it is to anticipate and plan for disruptions that haven’t yet occurred, especially as demand patterns evolve unpredictably.

From the well documented power outage in at Super Bowl 47, we began wondering: how does load change in the respective teams' cities during the Super Bowl itself? More specifically, how impactful are our Super Bowl parties on the grid?

To explore this, we analyzed electricity demand in the local load zone or balancing authority of each team’s city, focusing on hourly intervals before, during, and shortly after the game.

Total Demand Ranking: Sum of demand between 5 PM-12 AM EST, ranking relative to other days in February
Peak Demand Ranking: Peak between 5 PM-12 AM EST, ranking relative to other days in February

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Key Takeaways  

• Super Bowl night load rankings vary widely. Some years see mid-tier rankings, while others, like Tampa in 2021, rank near the top.

• PJM regions (Philadelphia, Cincinnati) tend to rank higher, likely due to colder temperatures and evening heating demand.

• Tampa in 2021 was the exception, with a top-10 load ranking, but since LA (2022) and Kansas City (2023) also played at home without a similar spike, home-field advantage alone may not explain the demand increase.

Looking at Super Bowl night load rankings across different years and regions, there doesn’t appear to be a strong, consistent trend in how the game impacts evening electricity demand. While some regions—like PJM’s PECO (Philadelphia) and AEP (Cincinnati)—saw relatively high rankings for both total and peak load, others, such as MISO LZ_6 (Kansas City) and PG&E (San Francisco), showed little to no discernible increase.  

Even when Los Angeles hosted the Super Bowl in 2022 and Kansas City played at home in 2023, both regions saw only mid-tier rankings, suggesting that a home-team Super Bowl does not necessarily lead to a noticeable demand spike. The most notable exception was Tampa in 2021, where total and peak load both ranked in the top 10 for the month. While it’s possible that increased local watch parties, game-day events, or higher commercial activity contributed, the fact that other home-team Super Bowls did not produce a similar effect suggests this was more of a one-off regional anomaly rather than a reliable trend.  

After considering this, we decided to dig a bit deeper and compare historical Super Bowl Sundays to the Sundays in January through February of each respective year.
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Total Demand Ranking: Sum of demand between 5 PM-12 AM EST, ranking relative to other Sundays in Jan.- Feb. (9 or 10 Sundays total)
‍Peak Demand Ranking: Peak between 5 PM-12 AM EST, ranking relative to other Sundays in Jan.- Feb.(9 or 10 Sundays)
 

Key Takeaways

• Super Bowl night load rankings remain inconsistent across years and regions. Some years see mid-to-low rankings, while others, like Cincinnati in 2022, rank at the top. This analysis compared demand relative to the same period in January and February.

• PJM regions (Philadelphia, Cincinnati) showed relatively higher rankings, but not always. Cincinnati 2022 had the highest demand, likely due to cold weather, while Philadelphia 2023 ranked mid-to-low compared to other Sundays in the same timeframe.

There is no clear or repeatable trend in Super Bowl night electricity demand when comparing to other Sundays. Comparing demand rankings across multiple years and regions, no strong pattern emerged, reinforcing our earlier findings.

Ultimately, while the Super Bowl could influence short-term consumption patterns slightly, the overall evening load ranking seems more dependent on other factors like weather, general system conditions, or economic activity rather than the game itself.

So if you find yourself worrying about grid reliability when you fire up jalapeño poppers in your air fryer while heating up buffalo chicken dip in your Instant Pot, take a deep breath, and go enjoy time with your family. Amperon can handle the forecasting, if you can handle guessing the color of Gatorade or the length of the National Anthem.