How Amperon Predicted Surprise Weather and Load Events More Than a Month Out
In today’s energy landscape, volatility is the norm. Power traders and load-serving entities know this first-hand.
Two recent events stand out as stark reminders of how extreme weather is reshaping power markets—and how costly it can be to rely on outdated forecasting methods.
ERCOT’s MLK Weekend Arctic Blast
A deep freeze swept across Texas over Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend in 2024, driving demand far beyond seasonal expectations. Traditional mid-term forecasts, built on 5-year historical averages and ISO load growth predictions, missed the signal: these models would have had a 27% MAPE during the Jan. 16 peak. Traders who hadn’t hedged were caught short, facing volatile and expensive procurement in day-ahead, real-time, and bilateral markets.
Amperon’s new Seasonal Mid-Term Forecast, however, predicted the drop in temperatures and the resulting peak load hours 38 days in advance. Armed with this information, term traders could have hedged the arctic blast, avoiding exposure and capitalizing on the volatility by procuring load well in advance.
PJM’s Mid-June Heat Wave
In mid-June 2025, PJM experienced a heat wave that pushed grid demand to near-record levels far earlier than expected. Again, historical models failed to anticipate the event. But Amperon’s Seasonal Mid-Term Forecast predicted the heat wave and peak load hours 32 days in advance, giving traders and operators the foresight to hedge and plan accordingly.
In contrast, market participants using historical averages and ISO load growth predictions would have seen a 24% MAPE during the June 23 peak.
These aren’t isolated wins. Between January 2024 and July 2025, Amperon successfully predicted 67 out of 68 top 1% load events across all PJM, ERCOT, and ISO-NE zones — with greater than 98% accuracy up to four weeks in advance.
Why Traditional Mid-Term Forecasts Fall Short
Seasonal patterns are shifting, and extreme weather events are reshaping power markets. Yet, traditional mid-term forecasts have had limited accuracy in a rapidly changing climate. Backward-looking seasonal averages no longer predict future demand.
Most mid- and long-term demand forecasts rely on historical averages or simulated weather scenarios. These models assume the future will look like the past—a dangerous assumption in today’s world.
They also lack granularity. Forecasts are often monthly or daily, with little insight into hourly demand patterns or probabilistic outcomes. That leaves market participants flying blind when it comes to timing trades, managing assets, or preparing for extreme events.
In a landscape where one missed peak can mean millions in lost opportunity or exposure, precision is key. Without accurate and precise mid-term forecasts, organizations risk costly over/under-hedging, missed market opportunities, inefficient maintenance scheduling, and regulatory non-compliance.
Weather-Informed Mid-Term Forecasting
Today, there is a better way.
The transformation of seasonal energy planning is enabled by Amperon’s Seasonal Mid-Term Forecast (MTF), the industry’s first weather-informed, hourly grid demand forecast up to 7 months out. This unlocks intelligent term trading and seasonal planning.
A direct extension of Amperon’s industry-leading Short-Term Forecast (STF), the MTF fills a critical gap between 15-day deterministic models and the often simplistic and static models used for long-term planning.
The MTF integrates real weather forecasts from ECMWF—including both 46-day sub-seasonal and 7-month seasonal models—to deliver hourly forecasts across all U.S. grids and zones, updated daily.
This isn’t just an incremental upgrade. It’s a strategic leap forward in how energy professionals plan, trade, and operate.
- Utilities can align resource adequacy planning with actual demand expectations.
- Traders can hedge intra-month exposure and capture alpha in term markets.
- Operators can schedule maintenance around real load forecasts, not historical assumptions.
Unlike traditional seasonal models that rely on simulations and historical averages, Amperon’s MTF uses ensemble weather modeling to generate 51 unique load forecasts each day (50 ensembles + 1 mean). This gives users a full spectrum of possible outcomes, empowering smarter decisions and better risk management.
At launch, MTF includes:
- Hourly granularity across all U.S. grids and zones
- Daily updates using ECMWF’s seasonal and sub-seasonal models
- Analog year overlays to compare seasonal patterns
- Quantile bands to visualize uncertainty
These tools help users explore “what-if” scenarios and quantify uncertainty—a critical capability in today’s weather-sensitive markets.
Whether you're a utility preparing for winter peaks, a trader timing a term position, or a battery operator planning seasonal strategy, the MTF gives you a true basis for action.
Don’t just react to a changing world. Thrive under volatility.
Want to see our accurate our Mid-Term Forecast are? Click here: https://www.amperon.co/back-test-request-mtf
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