Every summer, four hours determine a year of demand charges for Texas load-serving entities and large energy users.
ERCOT's 4CP (four coincident peak) mechanism sets transmission cost allocation based on system load during the highest-demand interval in each of June, July, August, and September. Missing a curtailment window in one of those months means paying, year-round, for capacity you didn't need to use.
This summer, Amperon's 4CP Alert product called the two biggest system peaks so far, and it called them early.
It's not official yet. ERCOT publishes final 4CP settlement days at the end of the season. But based on system load data so far, June 18 and July 22 look like they'll hold as two of the four.
Amperon's 4CP Alert product called the two biggest system peaks so far, and it called them early.
Amperon's June and July 2026 4CP Calls
Amperon flagged June 18 and July 22 as 4CP risk days more than a week before either occurred. Both calls held. ERCOT's system load peaked on exactly those two days, inside the afternoon window Amperon's models pointed to.
A week of lead time changes an operator's level of possible curtailment. Instead of scrambling to shed load on short notice, subscribers had time to line up shift schedules, pre-cool facilities, or coordinate with on-site generation, all before the peak hour arrived.
A week of lead time changes an operator's level of possible curtailment.
Confidence Well Before the Peak
Amperon issues two 4CP alerts a day, one overnight (3-4 AM) and one mid-morning (11 AM), each carrying a confidence score from 1 to 100. Here's how those scores tracked in the six days leading into both events:
The July 22 call was as clean as it gets: both the overnight and 11 AM alerts sat at 100 a full six days out and never wavered. June 18 built more gradually, starting in the high-80s and low-90s six days ahead, then climbing alert by alert to a firm 100 two days before the peak. Either way, subscribers had a rising, trackable signal well before the event, not a last-minute flag.
The July 22 call was as clean as it gets.
Why Lead Time Matters More Than the Hour
Nobody nails the exact settlement interval every time. What separates a useful 4CP program from a coin flip is whether it gets you looking at the right day with enough runway to act. Amperon's forecast put both June 18 and July 22 on the radar over seven days out, well ahead of ERCOT's own peak-day confirmation. That's the lead time that allows operators to effectively execute a curtailment plan.
What separates a useful 4CP program from a coin flip is whether it gets you looking at the right day with enough runway to act.
Two Months Down, Two to Go
June and July are behind us. August and September are still live, and they're historically the months with the highest 4CP risk in ERCOT, as load climbs through the hottest stretch of the year.
If you're not already subscribed to Amperon's 4CP Alerts, the value of joining now is straightforward: two of the four coincident peaks for 2026 are already set, and the remaining two are the ones that typically carry the highest system load of the season.
Subscribing before ERCOT's CP season closes out means you're covered for the peaks that matter most to your bottom line.
Explore Coincident Peak Alerts
.svg)
%20(3).png)
%20(2).png)
%20(1).png)
.png)
.avif)
.avif)
.avif)
.avif)
.avif)
%20(15).avif)
.avif)
.avif)
.avif)
.avif)
.avif)
