European Power Traders Finally Get One-Stop Forecasting

With the launch of Amperon’s Long-Term Forecast in 13 European markets, European power traders and risk managers now have access to best-in-class forecasts from a single vendor, from sub-hourly through to five years out.

Previously, European traders using Amperon’s industry-leading short-term demand and renewable generation forecasts had to look elsewhere for long-term insights. Today, Amperon’s machine learning-driven Grid Demand Long-Term Forecast (LTF) eliminates that step.

This development brings far more stable 5-year insights to much of Europe. Traditional forecasting methods have been unstable and ill-suited to a 5-year time horizon, while consulting services have notoriously proven to be expensive and time-intensive with subjective and inconsistent results.

As the energy transition takes shape, traders’ need for a Long-Term Forecast has grown substantially. The growth of renewable energy means long-term forecasts must continuously account for changes in net energy demand. Consumption patterns have also changed, radically altering supply and demand relationships. Finally, geopolitical instability makes the financial risk of forecast errors far more potent.  

Market volatility is here to stay, and reliable forecasts are a much-needed source of stability.

Amperon has developed a hybrid long-term demand forecasting methodology for Europe which combines advanced machine learning, robust data integration, and continuous model optimization to deliver granular resolution with exceptional accuracy. Building on the company’s industry-leading short-term forecasting foundation, this approach extends precision and adaptability into a five-year horizon using a consistent methodology.

The model ingests five years of historical grid demand data, provided at hourly granularity from official sources (ENTSO-E and individual TSOs), along with ECMWF’s ERA5 weather reanalysis data—a comprehensive, physics-based data set incorporating satellite observations and multivariate assimilation. These data streams are enriched by temporal and static features such as hour-of-day patterns, holidays, and seasonal trends to capture behavioral and system-level dynamics.

Then, Amperon’s  proprietary weather optimizer intelligently weights thousands of ERA5 data points based on population density, ensuring that weather inputs accurately reflect the spatial distribution of load sensitivity. Amperon’s AI/ML model stack then fuses these weather, demand, and temporal variables to model and project grid load patterns. The models are retrained monthly, continually refining forecasts as new observations emerge, which allows for dynamic learning and responsiveness to evolving demand trends.

The long-term forecast (LTF) provides both a Normal Weather projection—based on averaged weather from the past fifteen years—and a suite of Analogue Year scenarios that apply actual historic weather years to forecasted demand patterns. This enables scenario testing and sensitivity analysis across a range of potential market conditions.

Amperon’s LTF empowers users to plan with confidence in an increasingly complex grid landscape by providing transparent assumptions, granular resolution, and a weather-driven approach. By fusing data integrity, machine learning innovation, and continuous optimization, the LTF offers stakeholders the clarity needed to navigate uncertainty and seize emerging opportunities.

Contact us to schedule a demo, request historical STF model back-tests, or discuss your long-term planning needs.

‍