How Amperon Won the Holidays

The holiday season is one of the toughest periods for grid forecasting. Bridge days, unique load shapes, and winter heat waves and cold fronts compound uncertainty. For power traders—who collectively work through holidays to hedge volatility and stabilize critical energy systems—confidence in forecast accuracy and timely support are foundational to effective decision-making.

This year, Amperon delivered that confidence. Our models didn’t just outperform major ISOs; our Customer Success, Markets and Technical Services, and Data Science teams provided rapid, data-driven clarity when it mattered most. These holiday heroes exemplify Amperon’s commitment to accuracy, responsiveness, and professionalism—365 days a year.

How Amperon Outperformed PJM During New Year’s Peak Demand

In the lead-up to New Year’s Eve, market participants noticed a discrepancy between our forecasts and PJM’s system forecast due to holiday behavior and colder weather risk in the East. Over the weekend and leading into the Monday of December 29^th, PJM was estimating demand to be nearly 10 GW higher than Amperon for Wednesday the Dec. 31’s morning peak of HE9. PJM was also consistently forecasting much higher than Amperon through Friday, January 2^nd—a period which included New Year’s Eve and the corresponding holiday “bridge days”.

For traders, a misleading bias in the market demand forecast of this magnitude translates into massive exposure, distorted hedging strategies, and increased operational risk. Misreading peak demand affects bids, offers, spreads, and ancillary decisions across the Day-Ahead and Real-Time markets, which is a great opportunity for those who can call a miss in the market ahead of time.

Robust analysis and custom backtests from Amperon’s data scientists proved to traders and quants that PJM’s model was overweighting historical cold-snap weekends, while Amperon’s adaptive holiday features correctly accounted for milder conditions and bridge-day behavior.

Amperon’s Customer Success and Data Science teams responded immediately by providing additional clarity through customized charts and tables, including ad-hoc backtests to compare forecast results with and without holiday features enabled. By demonstrating methodology through analyses of holiday features, temperature sensitivity, and comparative backtests—before Day-Ahead close—Amperon gave traders the confidence to act decisively.

Amperon’s adaptive holiday features correctly accounted for milder conditions and bridge-day behavior.

ERCOT’s Holiday Forecast Gap: Adapting to Rare Weather Patterns

In ERCOT, a rare combination of warm winter weather and holiday load shape created similar complexity. Amperon projected peaks 3–5 GW higher than ERCOT’s official forecast, prompting scrutiny from market participants.

Our Data Science team analyzed load vs. temperature relationships using historical actuals and recent predictions. The scatter plots and residual checks indicated ERCOT was over-weighting prior cold holiday weekends, biasing expectations downward. Within days, ERCOT adjusted its forecast toward Amperon’s, and customers leaned into our outlook with renewed confidence.

The ERCOT outcome illustrates a key Amperon strength: adaptive models that respond to evolving conditions rather than over-fitting to seasonal memories. By pairing trustworthy methodology with rapid, transparent communication, we help traders reduce uncertainty and capitalize on accurate signals.

Within days, ERCOT adjusted its forecast toward Amperon’s.

How Amperon Supports Customers 365 Days a Year

Our teams operate with the same relentless commitment as our customers—power traders who never stop working to keep our energy grids running as effectively as possible, all year round.

These were not isolated wins. Amperon recently predicted PJM’s early-summer heatwave and ERCOT’s December 2 cold snap over 30 days out, giving traders time to act before risk was priced into the market.

Volatility is a feature, not a bug, of modern grids. Amperon’s adaptive, holiday-aware modeling, combined with fast, professional support, helps traders stay ahead of evolving conditions. And that’s a gift that lasts all year.

For market participants interested in seeing our backtests and detailed analyses, contact us here.

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