How accurate are your forecasts compared to traditional methods?

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How long does implementation typically take?

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Is your platform SOC II compliant?

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How do you handle weather data?

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Can you integrate with our existing systems?

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Products

Load Forecasting

Coincident Peak Forecasting

Coincident Peak Load Forecasting and Alerts

Coincident peak alerts help large electric consumers avoid demand charges for CP programs like ERCOT 4CP, PJM 5CP, MISO 1CP, NYISO 1CP, and ISONE 1CP.

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What is coincident peak forecasting?

Coincident peak demand forecasting predicts when a grid’s system-wide demand will hit its highest point in a given window. Large consumers’ consumption during these brief periods can set their transmission and capacity costs for the following year. CP alerts give customers advance notice so they can make plans to reduce their load, or deploy generators or batteries, before the grid peak occurs.

Peak demand charges can account for 30% or more of many large commercial and industrial customers’ entire electric bills, especially for manufacturers, data centers, and crypto miners. Specific requirements vary by program, but the logic is the same: by curtailing load at the right times for just a few hours a month during the CP season, many users can save hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars each year.

‍Read about how Plug Power avoided millions in demand charges using Amperon’s forecasting products.

Amperon's coincident peak forecasting products

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Peak alerts

Horizon:

0-7 days

Update frequency:

2x/day

Delivery:

Email, API

Use cases:

Coincident peak avoidance, ICAP tag management, PLC tag management

Advance notice of impending grid peaks up to 7 days out. Proprietary scoring methodology enables graduated curtailment decisions rather than binary yes/no calls. Custom thresholds allow users to tailor alerts to their risk tolerance. Alerts delivered via email or API.

92%

Day-ahead CP alert accuracy

Supported coincident peak programs

Amperon’s 6 dedicated coincident peak models cover all major US ISO programs, each with their own set of rules.

ERCOT 4CP

ERCOT

ERCOT 4CP coincident peak alerts for the four monthly 15-minute grid peaks from June through September that set users’ transmission charges for the following calendar year.

PJM 5CP (PLC)

PJM

PJM 5CP coincident peak alerts for the five peak hours from June through September that set users’ peak load contribution (PLC tag) for the following planning year (June through May).

PJM 1CP (NITS)

PJM

PJM NITS 1CP forecasts vary by zone but are a determinant to NSPL tags and transmission costs. Contact Amperon for details.

MISO 1CP

MISO

MISO 1CP coincident peak alerts for MISO’s single annual peak hour, which sets users’ peak load contribution (PLC tag). Resulting charges will vary by zone. Amperon’s alerts account for time zone differences across sites.

NYISO 1CP

NYISO

NYISO CP alerts for NYISO’s single peak hour in July/August, which sets users’ capacity tag (ICAP tag) and utility transmission charges for the following year.

ISONE 1CP

ISO-NE

ISONE CP alerts for ISO-NE’s single peak hour from June through September, which sets users’ capacity tag (ICAP tag) for the following year.

30%+

Of large C&I electric bills are from coincident peak demand

$4M+/yr

In potential charges avoided per 50 MW of load

CP programs covered across 5 ISOs

How it works

View integration documentation

Data ingestion

We combine Amperon’s Grid Demand Short-Term Forecast with ISO-specific coincident peak program rules. Each program’s measurement window and charge mechanics are encoded into the alert logic.

AI-powered modeling

Amperon’s probability-weighted peak detection model is retrained hourly, delivering a continuously updated probability score that rises as conditions escalate, providing graduated decision points rather than a binary alarm.

Peak alert delivery

Threshold alerts, tailored to each grid and client, are delivered via email or API. Escalating status from Watch to Alert to Critical gives operations teams time to plan and execute curtailments.

Continuous learning loop

Each successive season’s observed peaks feed back into the coincident peak forecasting model, recalibrating on the latest trends to improve accuracy year over year.

Coincident Peak Forecasting FAQs

Here are some answers about our platform, implementation process and pricing.

How accurate are Amperon’s coincident peak alerts?

Amperon has demonstrated 92% historical average day-ahead peak alert accuracy and 100% day-of accuracy as of 2025.

How do I interpret the results of a CP alert?

An event either IS or IS NOT a Coincident Peak Event. However, using an ensemble of decision trees and logistic regressions, we output a continuous score such that a score over 90 means that a CP event is very likely. The scoring scale consists of roughly 50 different features, depending on the market.

The performance of the probability score is continuously tuned to include the fewest amount of false positives ("calls" that don't turn out to be CP events) and maximize true positives ("calls" that are true CP events).

What time do you issue CP alerts?

Amperon’s peak alerts come out at 8 UTC and 16 UTC (3am/4am or 11am/12pm depending on time zone and season). Day Ahead calls are the 8 UTC call the day prior. Intraday calls are the 16 UTC call the day of.

Do you incorporate battery behavior and imports/exports into your ERCOT 4CP models?

Yes, our CP forecasting methodology incorporates critical storage load, wholesale storage load, and DC tie forecasting to align with ERCOT’s settlement methodology.

Stop paying for peaks you could have avoided

See how forecast-driven alerts can cut your transmission and capacity charges for your ISO program, your load profile, and your curtailment capabilities.

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