Widely celebrated holidays can cause unexpected shifts in demand, so we compiled a list of recent holidays in EU markets and show their impact on prices.
Spain
August 15, Feast of Assumption
The Feast of Assumption celebration in Spain spans four days, leading to lower-than-usual energy demand. However, demand during most of this period exceeded ES’s day-ahead forecast and Amperon’s forecast outperformed ES’s, particularly during peak demand times.
Price Impact
On August 15th and 18th, day-ahead auction prices dropped to $0 for most of the afternoon. This was likely due to an oversupply of renewable generation exceeding demand during that time. Peak day-ahead prices aligned with peak demand, where Amperon’s forecast consistently outperformed ES’s.
Germany (including Luxembourg)
October 3-4, Unity Day
October 4th was considered a bridge day following Germany's Unity Day on the 3rd. On this day, a proportion of the country works while others take the day off, extending their weekend. This dynamic leads to lower-than-usual energy demand on both the holiday and the bridge day.
Price Impact
On October 3rd, energy prices peaked around 7 PM, with intraday prices surpassing those of the day-ahead auction. During this time, demand was approximately 1.5 GW higher than TSOs' DE_LU’s day-ahead forecast. Amperon’s APE was 0.59%, and our forecast projected higher day-ahead demand than DE_LU’s, signaling the potential for increased prices.
France
July 13-14, Bastille Day
Bastille Day occurred over the weekend, which, like most weekends, resulted in lower demand compared to weekdays. However, demand ended up surpassing FR’s forecast for most of the day. Temperatures were about 1 degree hotter than predicted, likely contributing to the higher demand. Amperon’s APE was 0.99% during the peak demand hour, with our forecast predicting higher demand than FR.
Price Impact
Day ahead auction prices dropped under $0 with the lowest negative $74 around HE13-14, the highest demand of the day. This was likely due to an oversupply of carbon free generation exceeding demand during that time.
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