Introducing Amperon's Ensemble Forecast, NBM Integration, and Advanced Weather Package

We are excited to make three product announcements today: the Amperon Ensemble Forecast, the integration of NWS’ NBM into our products, and the launch of our Advanced Weather Package.

Always in pursuit of lower MAPE scores: Amperon Ensemble Forecast

Amperon’s Ensemble Forecast is our newest advancement in AI-powered demand forecasting.  

The Amperon Ensemble Forecast delivers, on average, a 2.6% baseline accuracy improvement over our standard AG2 forecast. It first builds demand forecast models based on leading weather forecasts (AG2, DTN, NBM, and Spire), and then optimally blends them together. Weather forecasts inherently involve uncertainty. By aggregating and evaluating predictions from multiple vendors, we mitigate the risk of relying solely on one weather forecast, enhancing overall accuracy and delivering a single demand forecast that is better than the sum of its parts.  

Our existing weather vendors, whose forecasts we use to create the individual demand models and the ensemble model, are: AG2 (default), DTN, Spire (in ERCOT), and – newly added! - NWS’ NBM (National Blend of Models).

NBM is now available

Our second announcement today is that we have introduced a fourth weather forecast into our demand models: NOAA’s National Blend of Models (NBM). The National Weather Service (NWS) operates 122 forecast offices, each of which forecasts weather independently. Before the introduction of NBM, forecasters across offices were reporting slightly different forecasts based on their unique expertise, even when looking at identical datasets.  

That is where NBM comes in. Described as “a nationally consistent suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of NWS and non-NWS model output,” the NBM takes whatever models are available from 31 different model systems and combines the information into a single forecast.  

Per NOAA, the NBM has performed “exceptionally well” and “feedback from public users has been positive, especially its usefulness for marine forecasting.”

Advanced Weather Package: Enable Advanced Analysis with More Models and Scenarios

Our third big announcement today comes at the request of several of our customers. The Advanced Weather Package enables our customers to delve deeper into our demand forecasts and conduct extensive weather scenario analysis, aiding in making more informed trading decisions.

Customers who upgrade to the Advanced Weather Package will get:

  • Access to individual demand forecasts based on weather forecasts from DTN, NWS’ NBM, and SPIRE (ERCOT only)  
  • The ability to modify weather scenarios up to two weeks out
  • The ability to adjust temperatures by up to +/- 15 degrees  

Unlock the power of advanced forecasting

Overall, the Ensemble Forecast brings Amperon to the next level. Now, our grid-level demand forecast gives every customer the learnings from several leading weather forecasts, blended together using state-of-the-art AI for the most accurate forecast on the market.

The Advanced Weather Package lets customers go one step further, exploring demand forecasts based on each of our weather vendors’ forecasts, and scenarios that feature temperature offsets of +/- 15 degrees Fahrenheit two weeks out. Contact us today to learn more about the Advanced Weather Package.

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