Amperon's US Summer Grid Outlook 2025

Summer 2025 is expected to bring a complex mix of weather patterns, rising electricity demand, and shifting grid dynamics. This outlook provides a forward-looking view of the conditions that could shape market behavior, operational planning, and reliability across U.S. power systems.

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Amperon Team

December 9, 2025

10 min read

What you'll discover in this report

How summer weather patterns may influence load and grid conditions.

Why rising demand and regional differences matter for seasonal planning.

What grid operators and market participants should watch this summer.

How long-lead forecasting supports strategic and operational decisions.

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This summer is shaping up to be another warmer-than-normal one across most of the country, which shouldn’t shock anyone given how hot recent summers have felt. Other highlights include:

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Peak demand records could be broken. ERCOT came within 100 MW of its all-time high in 2024 and with continued load growth, it could break that record in the coming months.
More retirements, more renewables. Thousands of megawatts of fossil fuel capacity are retiring across PJM, MISO, and CAISO. While solar and wind continue to fill the gap, they bring volatility and variability.
Weather risks are stacking up. Drought is increasing the chance of wildfires in the West and South, while a warm Atlantic and neutral ENSO increase hurricane risks for the Gulf and East Coast.

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Download the full Summer 2025 Grid Outlook to get region-by-region forecasts, weather insights, and market analysis to inform your summer strategy.

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