Mitigating Curtailment Risk
with Smarter Wind and Solar Forecasting

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Grid complexity and renewable growth are driving higher exposure to curtailment and congestion. This white paper outlines the growing financial risks facing solar and wind assets and how a hybrid forecasting approach can help. Gain strategies to better manage risk, protect long-term returns, and capture more value from clean energy assets

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Cameron Odegaard

October 1, 2023

15 min read

What you'll discover in this report

How congestion, curtailment, and negative pricing create the “triple threat” for renewables.

Why physics-based and ML models each fail on their own.

How a hybrid forecasting approach improves accuracy and reduces risk.

What better forecasts unlock for storage optimization and revenue protection.

Renewable energy operators face mounting challenges from grid congestion, forced curtailments, and negative pricing events that erode profitability. This white paper explores how hybrid wind and solar forecasting, combining physics-based models with machine learning enables asset owners to anticipate risks, protect revenue, and optimize market participation.

In this white paper you'll learn:

The Triple Threat: How congestion, curtailment, and negative pricing impact renewable asset owners.
Market Case Studies: Real-world examples from California, Spain, and Germany showing curtailment and price volatility.‍
Forecasting Methods: Pros and cons of physics-based vs. machine learning forecasting models.
Battery Integration: How advanced forecasting optimizes charging and discharging decisions for storage assets.‍
Metrics That Matter: Why capacity-normalized MAE (cnMAE) is the most effective way to measure renewable forecasting accuracy

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Live use cases

Curtailment Risk Reduction

Gain advance visibility into when and where curtailment will occur through high-accuracy hybrid forecasting that helps protect generation revenue.

Congestion-Aware Dispatch Optimization

Identify congestion-prone hours ahead of time and adjust generation or storage strategies to avoid forced exports and financial losses.

Storage Co-Optimization for Hybrid Sites

Use precise renewable generation forecasts to optimize battery charge and discharge strategies for higher capture rates and better market performance.

Revenue Forecasting & Financial Risk Management

Improve financial planning with forecasts that reflect real operational constraints, enabling more accurate revenue modeling and risk assessment.