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Amperon’s 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Grid Outlook

A Super El Niño will split the country:

  • A wet South could mean storms and mudslides
  • A warm, dry North could reduce wind and hydro output
  • Suprise cold snaps still possible everywhere
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Amperon Team
October 27, 2026
October 27, 2026
13 minutes

What you'll discover in this report

Winter 2026-2027 grid trends across the US:

  • Higher midday prices in California
  • Tail risk in Texas, both warm and cold
  • Reduced Northern wind and hydro

With one of the strongest El Niño events on record projected to extend through the winter, forecasters have a much clearer signal than last year. Overall mild temperatures could mask stormy surprises, however. El Niño could bring rain to parts of Canada, tornadoes to Texas, and mudslides to California, affecting Northern and Southern regions very differently.

Download the 2026-2027 US Winter Grid Outlook

See Inside

CAISO
Wet weather, reduced solar
ERCOT
Tail risk on par with Fern
PJM
Load growth squeezes reserves
NYISO/ISONE
Reduced hydro imports

In a season anchored on mild weather, surprise storms can spike prices quickly. In an environment like this, the value of forecasting lies in identifying which days break from the average, how far, and at what probability—far enough in advance to act. Amperon's 2026-2027 US Winter Grid Outlook provides early seasonal forecast details across the US.

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