Amperon's US Winter Grid Outlook:
Weak La Niña, Strong Uncertainty

This winter may appear mild at first glance, but the underlying signals tell a different story. Conflicting atmospheric patterns, rising electricity demand, and evolving grid conditions all point toward a season where volatility is very possible. To help market participants prepare, this white paper highlights the four key dynamics shaping the 2025–2026 winter outlook.

In this report, we examine:

• The major climate and atmospheric forces shaping this winter’s uncertainty and why traditional signals may not tell the full story.
• How evolving grid dynamics and market conditions are reshaping regional risk across the U.S. power system.
• The operational and financial pressures emerging from shifting demand patterns as electrification and load growth accelerate.
• The critical factors influencing short-term volatility and seasonal planning, and what energy professionals should be prepared for.