HOUSTON, September 23, 2025 — Amperon, a leading provider of AI-powered energy forecasting and analytics solutions, today announced the launch of the industry’s first weather-informed grid demand Mid-Term Forecast (MTF), giving energy market participants an unprecedented view of electricity demand up to seven months in advance and transforming seasonal market planning. Updated daily with hourly granularity, this product enables traders, utilities, and operators to better manage risk, hedge positions, and prepare for seasonal and extreme weather events that are reshaping power markets.
Traditional mid-term forecasts, which rely upon historic weather simulations, struggle to deliver accuracy in a rapidly changing climate. Amperon’s Mid-Term Forecast leverages sub-seasonal and seasonal weather forecasts from the European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), producing 51 unique load predictions for each U.S. grid daily based on its ensemble weather models. Amperon’s data science team has built a machine learning model that trains the ECMWF ensembles on years of historical weather actuals, providing a spatially and temporally accurate hourly curve of each individual weather variable feeding into the demand model—something that hasn’t existed before. The result is a load forecasting solution that helps market participants anticipate demand and price swings well before they arrive.
Amperon’s new Grid MTF has already proven highly accurate and reliable at forecasting critical demand events up to four weeks in advance. Historical performance analysis covering January 2024 through July 2025 showed that the MTF successfully captured 67 of 68 extreme demand events (the top 1%) across PJM, ERCOT, and ISO-NE, delivering forecasting accuracy above 98%.
“Markets have long relied on backward-looking seasonal averages to predict future demand. That’s like driving by looking in the rearview mirror,” said Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. “By integrating real weather forecasts into our models, we’re giving customers the clearest view yet of what demand could look like months from now so they can hedge smarter, plan better, and reduce costly surprises.”
Many customer trade volumes are shifting into term-trading, where seasonal mid-term insights are critical. As a result, Amperon is already seeing strong demand for the product. Financial traders are looking for new alpha in term positions to maintain portfolio balance with greater confidence further out on the curve, while power plant operators and retailers are turning to the MTF to strengthen hedge strategies and time maintenance schedules around demand swings months in advance. Utilities, IPPs, battery operators, and C&I customers have also shown early enthusiasm, recognizing the need for better seasonal visibility with term market signals as they manage resource adequacy and long-term planning.
“Markets are moving faster, and the ability to see weather-driven demand months ahead changes how we think about liquidity and positioning,” said Hiroki Horiuchi, Manager in Power Business at Tokyo Gas America. “Amperon’s mid-term forecast doesn’t just have the ability to improve models, it shifts the entire playing field for trading and finding alpha.”
As day-ahead markets become increasingly efficient and margins tighten, traders, operators, and asset managers shift their focus further out to find meaningful opportunities. Extreme weather and shifting climate patterns underscore the limits of relying on historical averages and the urgency of adopting forward-looking tools like Amperon’s MTF.
Available through both Amperon’s API and user interface at launch, the MTF delivers daily updates with hourly granularity, covering all U.S. grids and zones. With the launch of the MTF, Amperon continues to lead the industry in applying AI and weather intelligence to strengthen grid reliability, empower market participants, and accelerate the energy transition.
About Amperon
Amperon is the leading energy forecasting company, positioned at the intersection of energy data and AI. Founded in 2018, Amperon has become a trusted partner to power and utility companies, delivering demand, renewable generation, and price forecasts. With cutting-edge predictive analytics, seamless data integrations, and premium customer support, Amperon enables customers to enhance grid reliability and optimize asset performance. Committed to grid modernization, Amperon is the forecasting company of the energy transition.
For more information about Amperon, visit www.amperon.co.
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