Challenge

MCE provides electricity services across four Bay Area counties, each characterized by distinct microclimates and load patterns. Accurately forecasting energy demand in coastal zones, inland Mediterranean climates, and mountainous headlands is complex, requiring hyper-granular weather points and insight into seasonal trends. Additionally, the pace of electrification varies between communities, with differing penetration of rooftop solar and electric vehicles. To enhance its load forecasting, MCE partnered with Amperon in the summer of 2023 to develop a base load and loss-adjusted load forecast.

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Solution

Amperon’s forecasts provide MCE with hourly load predictions. The unique models for MCE leverage 120 weather points in its service area to capture microclimates and seasonal weather patterns. MCE accesses the base load and loss-adjusted load forecasts daily from Amperon’s platform and via API to evaluate its load submission to the ISO. This enables MCE’s forecast submissions to the ISO.

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Benefits

MCE’s mission is to confront the climate crisis by eliminating fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions, producing renewable energy, and creating equitable community benefits. To maintain clean energy offerings and empower its communities with access to renewable electricity, MCE strategically balances renewable power procurement with the increasing energy demand of its growing member base. Amperon’s meter demand forecast has helped MCE submit forecasts to the CAISO.

MCE’s Customer Story

Setting the standard for clean energy in California since 2010, MCE is California’s first Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) program. MCE provides 60-100% renewable electricity to 38 communities across Marin, Napa, Contra Costa, and Solano counties, all while maintaining stable rates. The CCA’s service area spans a wide range of climates, from Marin’s wet and cool conditions to the dry, hot regions of Contra Costa, Napa, and Solano. Managing the balance of supply and demand has become increasingly complex due to rapid changes in load patterns driven by rooftop solar, electric vehicle adoption, and population growth—all contributing to MCE’s 1,400 MW peak load.

In 2023, MCE partnered with Amperon to enhance its load forecasting capabilities. Precise daily load submissions not only affect short-term prices on the wholesale market, but also ensure the long-term reliability of the grid, providing safe, uninterrupted power to its members.

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Amperon’s Impact

Through close collaboration with Amperon’s data science and customer success teams, MCE integrated the unique characteristics of its service area, enhancing forecast accuracy.

The microclimates and subsequent impact onload patterns was a particularly challenging feature for MCE to manage when forecasting demand. To account for this, Amperon leverages over 120 weather points across the four counties to integrate hyper-granular weather data into our forecasting models. Combined with insights into rooftop solar penetration in the region, Amperon has been able to deliver forecast accuracy that outperformed MCE’s target thresholds for overall MAPE and during the top load days of the year.

“Accurate load forecasting is critical to the daily load management operations of a CCA,” notes Chawla. By delivering accurate load forecasts,Amperon supports MCE’s mission to empower communities with renewable electricity, foster local sustainability efforts, and lead the transition toward a low-carbon future.