In the ERCOT (Electricity Reliability Council of Texas), power market commercial and industrial power customers are charged by their utility for the 4 Coincident Peak (4CP) program. The 4CP program runs from June through September and establishes a coefficient for each end use customers by averaging their demand during the 15-minute time period in which the grid was at its peak demand (the coincident peak) in each of those four months. This coefficient is then used to calculate the final charge to the customer, billed over the following 12 months, that supports investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure ensuring reliable grid operations. For an end-use customer, having future visibility into when the coincident peak is likely to occur in a given month can allow for curtailment of operations and result in significant savings in the following year.
Amperon released our Four Coincident Peak (4CP) alert product entering June 2020 and the timing could not have been better. Early in June weather models began calling for above normal temperatures and, in some cases, record breaking heat. It quickly became apparent that the 4CP day was likely to occur earlier in the month as weather models called for temperatures later in the month to return to seasonal norms.
On June 5th, Amperon’s data science team and our load forecasting models identified June 9th as having a high probability (99%) of setting the 4CP mark for the month calling for a peak of over 70 GW. As more data became available it became clear that both June 8th and June 9th were potential candidates as the June 2020 4CP days with the Amperon team predicting the 8th having a 93% probability and the 9th having a 94% probability as of our 4 AM CST alert on June 7th. By 4 AM CST on the 8th itself the forecast for June 9th had decreased to 68,165 MW lowering its probability to 54% while June 8th stayed at a 93% probability.
When the heat wave on the week of June 8th had passed, peak loads on the 8th and 9th were 67,794 MW and 67,363 MW respectively, meaning that the Amperon model and data science team appeared to have correctly called June 8th as the June 2020 4CP day. Amperon gave alerts early the prior week that the 9th was likely to be the 4CP day, as we entered the operating day, our updates clearly called June 8th at the 4CP day for June 2020. The end of June brought some potential for high demand days, Amperon consistently predicted likelihood of 4CP below 60% and was correct as demand did not approach the levels experienced at the beginning of the month.
While ERCOT has not established its final ruling of the 4CP day for June 2020, Amperon is confident in our provided predictions and expect similar accuracy in the coming months.
* All predictions in tables as of 4 AM CST.