Coincident peak forecasting & demand alerts

Forecast-driven peak alerts across every major ISO peak charge program — so you can curtail before the peak hits, not after the bill arrives.

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What is coincident peak forecasting?

Coincident peak forecasting predicts when an ISO’s system-wide demand will hit its highest point during a measurement period — the event that sets transmission and capacity charges for the following year. A single peak event can impact costs by hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars.

CP alerts give customers advance notice to reduce load before a peak occurs. Amperon’s Peak Alerts are powered by the same STF demand models trusted by 9 of the top 15 ERCOT trading firms, continuously improving as the underlying forecasts improve.

Amperon's coincident peak forecasting products

Peak alerts

Source:

Grid demand short term forecast

Type:

Probability-weighted threshold alerts

Delivery:

API, email, platform

Use cases:

Peak charge avoidance, demand response orchestration, curtailment scheduling

Peak Alerts deliver probability-weighted forecasts, not binary yes/no triggers. You see peak probability rising throughout the day — giving you time for graduated curtailment decisions rather than reacting to a last-minute alarm. Powered by Grid Demand short term forecast, so alert accuracy improves automatically as the underlying demand model improves.

X.X%

MAPE vs. ISO baseline across ERCOT, PJM, MISO

Supported peak charge programs

Amperon's coincident peak forecasting covers peak charge programs across all major US ISOs and IESO in Ontario. Each program has different measurement rules — Amperon's alerts are calibrated to each.

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4CP (TCRF)

ERCOT

Alerts before the four summer 15-min peak intervals that set your transmission charges for 12 months.

5CP (NITS / PLC)

PJM

Separate tracking for NITS and PLC windows with alerts timed to PJM's peak measurement rules.

NYISO ICAP

NYISO

Peak forecasts calibrated to NYISO's capacity tag measurement methodology.

ISO-NE ICAP

ISO-NE

Alerts calibrated to New England's peak measurement windowsMISO 1CPMISO Single annual peak — highest stakes per-event of any major program. Precision matters most here.

Global adjustment

IESO

Alerts for Ontario's top-5 peak hours that set GA charges — often the majority of a large consumer's bill.

$XM

Aggregate customer charge avoidance / savings

X hrs

Average alert lead time before peak events

Peak charge programs covered across ISOs

How it works

View integration documentation

Data ingestion

Public ISO demand data combined with 25+ years of historical weather data and real-time weather feeds. Multiple weather model sources blended for optimal accuracy.

ML Modeling

Ensemble machine learning models retrained and updated hourly as new demand and weather data arrives. Each ISO has dedicated model architectures tuned to that market's characteristics.

Output delivery

Short-term and long-term portfolio forecasts delivered via API or Snowflake. Automated day-ahead scheduling pushed directly to the ISO. Threshold alerts flag data anomalies before they impact bids.

Continuous learning loop

Models self-improve with every new data point. Accuracy compounds over time as the training dataset grows and the model adapts to shifting demand patterns, EV adoption, and electrification trends.